Betting markets usually are good at prediction, but this morning I read that the betting action has made the Patriots odds-on favorites to have a perfect season.
Two things make me skeptical--Tom Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the number of games left on the Patriot's schedule.
Tom Brady has a 9-1 touchdown to interception ratio this year. This is astonishing, and surely reflects luck. Over his career before this season, his ratio has been an excellent 2-1 (stat comes from TMQ). A ratio that improved to 3-1 or 4-1 could reflect fundamentals (better line play, better play calling, Randy Moss, etc), but 9-1 must reflect a lucky draw.
If Brady returns to normal, it would be reasonable to expect New England's probability of winning to drop to .9 against most teams, and .6 against the Colts at home. They have five games remaining before they (presumably) play the Colts for the Super Bowl. So the chance of the Colts winning the last 6 is .9^5*.6, or .354.
This is still a ridiculously high probability for going undefeated, but it makes it a 2-1 fair bet, rather than less than 1-1.
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