Githabul People achieve Native title deal

A major native title deal has been agreed by the NSW Government giving the Githabul people joint control of 19 national parks and state forests in Northern New England.

This forms part of the biggest native title settlement struck on the eastern seaboard in terms of area and includes many picturesque NSW parks and the World-Heritage listed Border Ranges and Toonumbar national parks.

The Githabul's traditional territory covers more than 6,000 square km straddling the New England and Queensland borders around Mt Lindsay. The Queensland Government has opposed the claim and is not covered by the agreement.

I had some difficulty in working out the Githabul's exact territory simply because the on-line records are variable with multiple spellings for same language groups. AITSIS (IdE.14) records the language as Gidabal with the following alternative spellings: a-bool Giabal Gidabul Gidjoobal Gitabal Gomaingguru Kidabal Kidjabal Kit Kitabal Kitabool Kitapul Kitchebal Kittabool Kuttabal Kuttibal Kuttibul Noowidal Paiamba Kitabul Kuthabal.

I also have a problem because I am not sure of the relationships/territory/overlaps between the Githabul, Badjalang (AITSIS Id.E12: I have always said Bandjalong) and Gumbainggirr AITSIS Id.E07). As best I can work out:

• The Badjalang are recorded at the following localities: Ballina; Baryugil; Clarence River; Coraki; Moonim; Rappville; Richmond River; Tabulam; Evans Head.
• The Githabul are recorded at the following locations: Clarence River; Drake; Killarney; Logan River; Rathdowney; Richmond River; Spicer Gap; Tabulam; Tooloom; Unumgar; Urbenville; Woodenbong.
• The Gumbainggirr lie to the south of the Badjalang and are recorded at the following locations: Bellingen; Coff Harbour; Glenreagh; Nambucca Heads; Nymboida River; One Tree Point; South Grafton; Urunga; Woolgoola.

I will provide more on this story once I get more details.

History of the Newcastle Stock Exchange

Founded in 1937 as a rival to the Sydney Stock Exchange, the Newcastle Stock Exchange (NSX) became the home exchange up to 300 companies.

Many of these were local and regional businesses that went on to become significant Australian companies, including Brambles Industries Limited, Coal and Allied Industries Ltd, NBN Ltd, New Redhead Estate and Coal Company Ltd, Newcastle Gas Company Ltd and Steggles Holdings Ltd.

Changing economic structures caused the NSX to go into decline. Bigger companies migrated to the Sydney Stock Exchange, with few coming behind.

I am not sure when the old NSX ceased to operate, although I suspect that it may have been in the 1980s. This period saw the disappearance of many locally owned businesses through acquisition.

The Stock Exchange was reactivated as a new entity in 2000 to fill a perceived gap for small and medium size companies that simply could not afford the costs and onerous requirements of listing on the Australian Stock Exchange.

On 21st December 2006 NSX changed its name to National Stock Exchange of Australia Limited to provide a national platform for a variety of regional markets.

The NSX aims to be the premier market for small to medium, prominent regional businesses and sub exchanges like the NSX Bendigo Stock Exchange and NSX Wollongong Exchange.

James Glassman says House Prices will be in Equilibrium this spring

He argues that price to household income will be within their long-term norms soon. His analysis is here: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/econreport12312015.pdf.

This may or may not be correct; it is also beside the point.

First, in the markets where prices got really out of hand relative to fundamentals (Florida, Arizona, Inland California, etc.), prices have a long way to drop until the long-term price-to-income ratio returns to "normal." Second, and more important, household income is not the key fundamental to focus on--rents and inventories are. Until inventories drop to roughly the six month range (they are now in excess of ten months), it is hard to see where a house price turnaround will come from.

Morris Davis, Andreas Lehnert, and Robert F. Martin Get Us Closer to the True Rent-to-Price Ratio for Housing

Their paper is here:

http://morris.marginalq.com/DLM_fullpaper.pdf

This is a careful analysis, and implies that house prices need to fall a lot for the real PE ratio to return to historical norms (the long run norm seems to be about 5 percent, and we are currently around 3.5 percent--turned around, the PE ratio has risen from about 20 to a little under 30).

A couple of issues worth considering, though. First, land use regulation is surely more binding now than it was 20 years ago, meaning higher expected long-term growth rates in prices may not be unreasonable. Using their benchmark analysis, expectations about growth need to be 1.5-2 percent higher now than they were in the past in order to get equilibrium. This is certainly possible, if not likely.

Second, owner occupied housing has improved in a variety of characteristics not measured in the decennial census. Most important, AHS data show owner-occupied housing is getting relatively larger in terms of square footage. The data reported in the census (number of rooms) is not as reliable an indicator of quality as living area. Vintage will to some degree pick this up, but the omission of living area from the census creates an important problem. One could say the same thing about building materials and finishes.

That said, the paper is well worth reading--and should leave us a little more frightened than we were before.