My soon-to-be colleagues do so here: RESIDENTIAL LOCATION, LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION: THE NEGLECTED ROLE OF NONWORK TRAVEL.
They find that less than one out of five trips is for work, and that in 2001, the average person made more than four trips per day (reinforcing my point in my last post on gas prices and urban land).
I should also mention that according to Zillow, for the Washington area, house prices in nearby Montgomery County have fallen by 7 percent in the last years, while in exurban Prince William County they have fallen by 24 percent. Paul Carrillo and I have done preliminary estimates that show that prices in the District have not fallen at all.
As for changing urban form, it will take awhile, but it could happen. Houses in the exurbs will likely not be torn down, but they will depreciate rapidly, while houses near employment centers and amenities will increase in relative value, meaning there will be incentives for dense redevolopment. For a good treatise on "filtering," see Ed Olsen's classic AER paper.
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