Hope from Lutz Kilian?

He has the lead article in the new Journal of Economic Literature on the Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks. He calculates a one year elasticity of consumer expenditures with respect to retail energy prices of
-.15. The energy component in CPI was down 13 percent from a year ago in November. If the coefficients on his model are stable, this implies consumption growth of 2 percent over the next year. Then again, one of the points of the paper is that the coefficients on such models are not particularly stable.