Sympathy for the Devil

To me, there are three reasons to get cable television: HBO, ESPN and C-Span. One of the best things about C-Span is question time, during which the British Prime Minister is asked pointed questions and sometime is (gasp) heckled.

Heckling has been a source of consternation since the town hall meetings started veering out of control this August; then a minor congressman's rude shout-out during the President's terrific speech last night captured disproportionate coverage on the news this morning.

I like President Obama a lot; I am pretty sure I wouldn't like Congressman Wilson at all. But could we get a grip? Elected officials are supposed to be big girls and boys, and they should be able to take control of events. Barney Frank showed us just how to do it a few weeks ago:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYlZiWK2Iy8

In the end, the heckler looks just plain stupid. And Nancy Pelosi did pretty well with the daggers she sent out into the House chamber--she reminded me of Mrs. Athnos when my 3rd grade class misbehaved (Mrs. Athnos was one of my all-time favorite teachers).

Should there be limits? Of course--whenever violence is threatened or implied, heckling goes beyond the pale. Congressmen (and Presidents) should be able to handle shouters, but people should not be allowed to brandish guns at political events, and effigy burnings are unacceptable. But yelling opinions (even inane ones) at politicians is part of the essence of democracy.

During my first year as an assistant professor, I lost control of a class to a couple of hecklers. Part of what they were heckling about was unfair: I was following in the footsteps of an influential and beloved teacher--James Graaskamp--and I really couldn't help the fact that I wasn't him. But part of the heckling was justified--I was trying to teach Sherwin Rosen's hedonic pricing paper to real estate MBAs, and it was simply inappropriate material given the goals of an MBA degree. I am not saying that I liked being heckled, but it made me think hard about how to teach what I was assigned to teach. I have never been treated rudely in class since then.

Tyler Cowen on Economics Education

"Teaching economics. Give students open-ended problems, no answer, want students to struggle, argue with their classmates, write them up on their own. But many don't, and are comforted when they just hear the answer in class. Hard to get students—and ourselves—to do the hard work necessary to learn. Generally, teaching that way is not popular. Painful to have to defend your own propositions in the face of being challenged. We don't understand very well how education works. Can you replace teachers with DVDs of the great lecturers? Probably wouldn't work, but why not? What makes education effective? Reading a blog may be as good a way to learn economics as reading a book. Hearing people chat, tell stories. Talking about each other's ideas is intrinsically valuable, valuable to be part of a small discoursing community. Emulates the dinner table. Anecdote: Alfred Marshall was teaching a class, and Pigou was only student. Pigou sits down, Marshall just reads his lecture notes."

A long interview with him is at:

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/09/cowen_on_your_i.html

Housing and the Business Cycle

Ten years ago, I wrote this: Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non- residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP

RICHARD K. GREEN George Washington University REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Vol. 25 No. 5, Summer 1997

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of different kinds of investments on the business cycle. Specifically, it examines whether residential and non-residential investment Granger cause GDP, and whether GDP Granger causes each of these types of investments. The paper uses quarterly National Income and Products Data for the period 1959 to 1992. Under a wide variety of time-series specifications, residential investment causes, but is not caused by GDP, while non-residential investment does not cause, but is caused by GDP. Thus, housing leads and other types of investment lag the business cycle. The results also suggest that policies designed to funnel capital away from housing into plant and equipment could produce severe short-run dislocations. About a month ago, Ed Leamer wrote this: http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2015/PDF/2015.08.03.Leamer.pdf Where he showed that declines in the housing cycle are remarkably strong predictors of recessions. I have a ($1) bet with my boss, Susan Phillips, about whether we are heading into recession this year: I say yes and she says no. She was a Fed Governor, and so has insight that I don't begin to have. I would also prefer to lose the bet. By after last Friday's jobs numbers, I like my chances.

Joe Morello

Joe Morello never ceases to amaze me. Listen to how he keeps the 5/4 signature alive through is complicated solo.