A Short Break

I am taking a short break from posting to allow me to catch up on some other things, to recharge my batteries.

Newcastle's poshest hotel - the Great Northern

I tried to find an old photo of the Great Northern Hotel, but the small snapshot on the left was the only one I could find. The record of the photo suggests the 1940s, but looking at the Morris I think that the photo is later than that.

Looking back, it is hard to imagine my excitement when we went to stay at this pub. This was a seriously big hotel. It had a lift!

I am not sure how long we stayed. It was a little while. Early in the morning, brother David and I would go down to the waterfront to look at the trains and ships. This was exciting stuff.

The Great Northern actually was a pretty posh place. When Tooths upgraded the hotel in 1938, it was the largest single hotel expansion in the company's history.

It is probably hard for Newcastle people to believe now, but even though competition from Sydney had sucked out much of the city's Northern commercial life, the city was still New England's metropolis.

The next photo shows a much later picture of the hotel. You can see its size.

Memories.

Path Dependence?

I am currently in Minneapolis. It is, to me, a great city. My feelings may reflect that it was the large city nearest to me when I was growing up, but they also reflect that it has the attributes of a great city: innovative companies, such as 3M, and Medtronic, wonderful arts, including an orchestra that Alex Ross of the New Yorker wrote,"[sounds] to my ears, like the greatest orchestra in the world," and a vibrant, walkable downtown. The only other Midwestern city with such a jewel of a downtown is Chicago, which is also, of course, a much larger city.

The question is why. Bill Cronon wrote a great book about Chicago, explaining how it became and remains an epic city. The remain part is a function of path dependence--once Chicago made a set of choices about how it would connect with the nature that surrounded it, both physically (through, for instance, railroads) and intellectually (through, for instance, exchanges), it set itself on a self-perpetuating path.

I know of no similar book about the Twin Cities (that doesn't mean it doesn't exist). But it is an interesting question as to why Minneapolis has done so much better than other Midwest metropolitan areas: it terms of educational attainment, income, and population growth, it has substantially outperformed Kansas City, St Louis, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton, Pittsburgh and Buffalo (I could go on, but you get the point). I don't think it is the weather.

New York has a Beautiful Capitol

It is Empire State Plaza that is the problem.

A second category occurs to me: bad buildings by great architects. John Portman's Westin Peachtree Hotel in Atlanta would be one; I.M. Pei's Hoffman Hall on the USC campus might be another. And while it is heresy to say so, I am not crazy about H.H. Richardson's Sever Hall on the Harvard Campus.

As a number of commentators noted, college campuses are fertile ground for finding bad buildings. Mather House at Harvard is really appalling, as is most of the MIT campus (Kresge Auditorium being an important exception). Cal Tech, on the other hand, is very nice.

The campus of the University of British Columbia is perhaps the most outstanding example of a clash between breathtakingly ugly buildings and breathtakingly beautiful surroundings.

The most beautiful campuses I have seen in the US are Indiana U and the University of Virginia (thank you Mr. Jefferson). Elon University, a small school in North Carolina, has a very attractive campus. UC-Santa Barbara has such amazing surroundings, it is hard to believe anyone gets any work done there.

Missing Pontiac

I am in general not sentimental about General Motors. The company made very bad cars for a very long time. I once asked a friend who worked there why, as a research project, they didn't just buy Camries, take them apart, and try to put them back together again. He said they did--the taking apart, anyway. They never could figure it out.

But my first car was a 1973 Pontiac Grand Am. My parents gave it to me as a college graduation present in 1980. On a good day, the car got something like 16 mpg on the highway, because it had a 6.3 liter V-8 engine. But boy, could it go fast! It also handled really well.

I drove across the country a couple of times in it, and it was a great car in the city, because it was a bit of a beater, so the Mercedes and BMWs around me knew they had a lot more to lose than I were something unfortunate to happen if they cut me off.

So I have warm and fuzzy feelings about the Pontiac brand. On the other hand, I never later went out and bought one...

A slight brightening of mood in Atlanta

The ULI meetings were in Atlanta last week. This is entirely impressionistic, but it seemed that people were in a far better mood than they were at the Miami meeting last fall. People seemed very down at that meeting--they were much more upbeat in Atlanta, reporting that they were actually doing some deals. Perhaps another green shoot...

I like Atlanta (particularly Mid-town and the Arts area) quite a lot. I know of no city with more trees than Atlanta, and in the spring, it is very lovely.

Joe Cortright says that higher gas prices are hurting suburbs and places without strong urban cores

He writes:

...high gas prices are not only implicated in the bursting of the housing bubble, but that the higher cost of commuting has already re-shaped the landscape of real estate value between cities and suburbs. Housing values are falling fastest in distant suburban and exurban neighborhoods where affordability depended directly on cheap gas. In metro areas around the country, housing prices are down most on the fringe, while close-in neighborhoods are holding more of their value--or in several cases, still continuing to see price appreciation.
And the analysis also shows that those metropolitan areas with the strongest close-in neighborhoods--as measured by the core vitality index we developed in our 2015 City Vitals report--have weathered the housing collapse far better than other metros. House prices have performed best and foreclosures have been lower in those metropolitan areas with vibrant core neighborhoods.

Far from being a short term or transitory event, our view is that this shift in real estate market valuations implies a fundamentally different path for future urban development in the years ahead. As my colleague, CEO's for Cities President Carol Coletta puts it, "In short, vibrant cities just became a whole lot more valuable."

There are tremendous opportunities for the nation's cities to build on this shift in value, promoting redevelopment, mixed uses, higher densities and better transit. These strategies will also play a key role in helping reduce energy demand (and the trade deficit) as well as putting us on a path to dealing with the challenge of global warming.

The paper has lots of interesting pictures relating location to changes in house prices. But I think a key policy question is whether "strong urban cores" can be created by design, or whether they are organic phenomena.

Peter Gordon on Phillip Roth (Zuckerman) on George Plimpton

Peter Gordon writes:

Philip Roth's Exit Ghost is enjoyable for many reasons. Roth even gives us a thumbnail definition of happiness. Nathan Zuckerman had been on self-imposed exile in the Berkeshire's and, on re-entering New York city life, is stunned to discover that George Plimpton had died.

George escaped his glamour without losing his glamour, only
further enhancing it in autobiographical books seemingly driven by
self-deprecation. Climbing into the ring with Archie Moore he is
simply practicing noblesse oblige in its most exquisite form -- a form,
moreover that he had invented. When people say to themselves 'I want to be
happy,' they could as well be saying 'I want to be George Plimpton': one
achieves, one is productive, and there's pleasure and ease in all of it. (p.
250).

I remember reading Paper Lion when I was around 10. At the time, I thought it was the best thing I had ever read.

(Vertical) transportation and urban form:

Nick Paumgarten in the New Yorker:

In New York City, home to fifty-eight thousand elevators, there are eleven billion elevator trips a year—thirty million every day—and yet hardly more than two dozen passengers get banged up enough to seek medical attention. The Otis Elevator Company, the world’s oldest and biggest elevator manufacturer, claims that its products carry the equivalent of the world’s population every five days. As the world urbanizes—every year, in developing countries, sixty million people move into cities—the numbers will go up, and up and down.

Two things make tall buildings possible: the steel frame and the safety elevator. The elevator, underrated and overlooked, is to the city what paper is to reading and gunpowder is to war. Without the elevator, there would be no verticality, no density, and, without these, none of the urban advantages of energy efficiency, economic productivity, and cultural ferment. The population of the earth would ooze out over its surface, like an oil slick, and we would spend even more time stuck in traffic or on trains, traversing a vast carapace of concrete. And the elevator is energy-efficient—the counterweight does a great deal of the work, and the new systems these days regenerate electricity. The elevator is a hybrid, by design.

New England Australia - Newcastle's decline

I think that many Newcastle people would be surprised by the heading of this post. But it's true.

Growing up, those in country NSW used to refer to NSW as Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong. Now NSW should be written nSw.

Growing up, Newcastle was NSW's second city, the biggest city in New England. It had a unique and distinct place. That place is going.

The use of language by the NSW Government and the Sydney media shows this clearly.

I was surprised during the last elections to find that the Sydney Morning Herald included the Lower Hunter in its central coast election maps. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. But then I found a series of NSW Government maps that simply showed Newcastle as part of Greater Sydney.

We can see this in the NSW State Plan where Newcastle is treated as one of Sydney's ring cities.

Newcastle people really need to watch this or the place will become just another Sydney suburb.

Did Arizona just help California's Housing Market?

My colleague Dowell Myers points out that for the housing market in the US to remain healthy, we must "cultivate new immigrant residents." Arizona's new law, which would require immigrants (legal or otherwise) to "carry papers" creates what I would consider to be an atmosphere of hostility to immigrants--all immigrants. I am also awaiting the spectacle of a police officer demanding the "papers" of a native-born Latino.

In any event, people have a propensity to go where they feel welcome, and avoid places where they are not. Hostility to immigrants in general and Latinos in particular seems to be a political loser in California, so Arizona's policies may lead to higher demand for houses in California.

Admissions Advice

This week I read Susan Coll's Admissions, which reminded me of my time as MBA Dean at GW. We had an excellent admissions staff with fine judgment, but they would sometimes ask my opinion about close calls. I remember one mediocre candidate who began his essay with something along the lines of "when people work for me." He then proceeded to describe what everyone would do for him--nothing about what he would do for them. He basically showed himself to be the sort of person with whom no one would wish to work.

So my advice to those writing admission essays: don't be a putz.

Belshaw sans words - New England aviation series

I have established a new blog, Belshaw sans words, simply to consolidate with a few words of text photos and other visual material that I have discovered in my travels. As you might expect, the blog has a particular focus on New England.

I have decide that the best approach to the new blog is to run photos in series. That way people get to see a story.

New England aviation is the current series focus. Here I have been having a great deal of fun searching round for photos of planes with a New England connection. I have not looked in this type of very focused way before, and I have found a lot.

Do visit and enjoy.

The New York Times is (some days) a National Treasure

Barry Bearek's story of his imprisonment for trying to cover the elections in Zimbabwe is both harrowing and informative. The final two paragraphs:

I had left the cells with a case of scabies, an infestation of microscopic mites that swelled my hands and wrists to nearly twice their size. But I am better now, back in Johannesburg, with Celia, with our sons, Max, 17, and Sam, 12.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe is beset with paroxysms of violence. Thuggery, torture and murder are familiar implements in Robert Mugabe’s tool kit. Political opponents are being brutalized, as are everyday people whose voting defied him. The presidential election results are still unannounced.

A blogger whom I esteem often entitles his posts "New York Times Death Spiral," and then gives examples of the paper's shortcomings. But all journalism is compromised by tight deadlines; journalists also need to play a repeated game with sources, which means they cannot be heroic and write whatever they are thinking every day.

To me, the Times balances the need for timeliness and access against its moral obligation to be courageous as well as any newspaper. It gets the balance wrong from time-to-time. But I remain grateful for its existence.

Should Berkshire Hathaway be required to post collateral on underwater positions?

Yes.

(BTW, I own a few Class B shares and am a big fan of Warren Buffett).

New England's Aborigines - the Birpai: web references

Photo: ABC Mid North Coast. Coorah Canugan Badu Exhibition Closing Ceremony. Kattang Dancer Joe Archibald on the hunt for some honey. In the background playing the didge is one of the exhibition's curators Birpai man Stephen Donovan.

In an earlier post on visitors to this site I mentioned the visitor who searched on the Birpai, the Aboriginal people occupying the Hastings and Manning River Valleys.

I also said how disappointed that visitor would have been by the results. So for his/her sake as well as my own, I thought that I would do a brief post pulling together some of the web references on the Birpai. I can then use this as a base to do a fuller post later.

First, as a general comment, while those in the Hastings Valley say Biprai, those in the Manning Valley often refer to the Biripi. They are the same people. As a second general comment, there are a lot of fragmentary glancing references that make a full search difficult.

AIATSIS has a 2003 list of references on the Birpai language and people, although I find the lay out complicated.

The Greater Taree City Council has a very useful heritage section on the Birpai. The Kendall site contains a short summary. There is a another very useful page on the Tobwabba site that deals with the Worimi and Biripi and sets a historical context. The Great lakes museum has a short page on early contact with Europeans. A related Great Lakes page can be found here.

The Timbertown site also has a useful page focused on the use of wood. The site page includes a list of references and also provides an introduction to the Dick photographic collection. Even though the photos were staged, this is by far the best collection of photos on traditional Aboriginal life in New England.

The Australian Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission has an interesting page that provides a snapshot of the position of the Birpai people in 1998.

Another interesting snapshot is provided by the minutes of the Purfleet community meeting. The NSW Department of Aboriginal Affairs Two Ways report on the North Coast sets a general context on current Aboriginal conditions on the broader North Coast region.

Arts Mid North Coast has a useful page giving contact details for various Aboriginal organisations.

The booklet prepared after the construction of the Cowarra dam contains some limited information. The Dooragan National Park Management Plan (July 2004) has some material including the story of the three brothers. Another short National Parks reference can be found in the material on the Barrington tops.

A Pox on All Three (but the biggest, grossest on McCain)

All three candidates are pandering about gasoline prices. McCain is the worst, having called for a gas tax holiday in the summer, when pollution is at its worst.

Now comes a story from Businessweek that suggests that, contrary to the findings in David Austin's work, higher gas prices are leading to less driving. It would be hard to list all the policy benefits that result from this.

We do need to be careful about the association here--people may be driving less because they are less likely to be working, or because they are not going shopping or out to eat as much. If the reduction is driving owes more to the likely recession than to the price of gasoline, the effect will not be permanent. We won't be able to figure out which it is until and unless the economy bounces back at the same time that the price of gas remains high.

The regressive nature of high gas prices is also a problem. But this would be better solved through increases in the minimum wage and/or the earned income tax credit than a reduction in the federal gasoline tax.

It is going to be awhile before the economy recovers

From the Washington Post:

Sales of New Single-Family Homes at 16-Year Low

I wrote ten years ago that residential construction was THE leading indicator. And Ed Leamer says housing IS the business cycle. Yikes!

dilemmas

My Wall Street Journal subscription is about to expire. I don't know whether to renew. One the one hand, I hate sending money to Rupert Murdoch. On the other, I would miss Greg Ip, David Wessel and Scott McCartney. And the editorial page is one of two places I allow myself to be exposed to right-wing nuttery (Bill Kristol's column is the other).

[update: I've decided to renew].

Polonius on Subprime

Hamlet, Act I Scene III

Neither a borrower, nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

Of course, Polonius was an ass.

Twelfth Night Commercial 3

With the Green sisters. Successors to the Coen Brothers.

Diane Swonk Waxes Poetically about Falling House Prices

She writes:

[The housing downturn] not only represents a hit to the American economy, but it represents a hit to the American psyche. It is a straw that breaks the back of working class households who feel they have already given more than their fair share in an economy that penalizes manual labor relative to educational attainment.

A more prosaic way to put it is that home equity is often the only wealth that people in the lower half of the income distribution have. According to the 2004 SCF, 40 percent of those in the bottom quintile of the income distribution have some home equity; only 12 percent own stock.

The prescience of JM Keynes

This via Brad Delong:

The outstanding ground for cheerfulness lies, I think, in this -- that the system has shown already its capacity to stand an almost inconceivable strain. If anyone had prophesied to us a year or two ago the actual state of affairs which exists to-day, could we have believed that the world could continue to maintain even that degree of normality which we actually have? This remarkable capacity of the system to take punishment is the best reason for hoping that we still have time to rally the constructive forces of the world.

Remarkable.

Australia's Aborigines - the need to localise

Photo: Thomas Dick Collection, Port Macquarie Historical Society, the Birpai

In my last post on what brings people to this site, I mentioned the search that had been done on the Birpai, an Aboriginal language group in the Hastings and Manning River Valleys.

The person searching would have been disappointed. So I thought that I should add a post pointing to some reference sources. But before I do so, I want to make a general point.

Without checking precise post references, I have said before how hard it is to find information about Australia's indigenous peoples at local or regional level. I think that this is a major gap.

If we really want to recognise the past of our indigenous peoples and integrate it properly into national history, we must localise it. People find it much easier to understand and identify things relevant to their own immediate areas.

Postscript

I have been trawling through web pages relating to the Birpai. There is a fair bit of information but it is all over the place.

One simple, cheap and useful thing that could be done by either the NSW or Australian Governments is to pay for the creation of web sites covering the the different language groups such as the Birpai to act as a central information point.

Simple because the technology is not complex. Cheap because web costs are low, while one or two full time researchers could progressively create the content for a lot of sites in twelve months. Useful because it would help both our indigenous peoples and those like me who are interested.

Kamilaroi Highway Conundrums

Since I wrote my first post on the Kamilaroi Highway, New England's east-west highways - the Kamilaroi, I have been mulling over a basic conundrum.

The five local government areas along the Highway have done a remarkably good job in raising the road's internet profile. However, this gives rise to a problem for me: any posts I write get lost in all the other references.

Most of the traffic on this blog comes from search engines. Here one part of my traffic comes from a large number of searches on individual items - people, schools, local events - that do not otherwise get internet prominence. Then there are series like the posts on Judith Wright that involve popular topics.

Series on topics like the Kamilaroi Highway fall in the middle. From a narrow traffic perspective, I would in fact be better off not writing them.

This where my personal purpose in writing the blog comes in. Regardless of traffic, such topics are worthwhile because they consolidate my own knowledge. Further, they help build a picture of New England's depth.

Again, as is so often the case, I need to take a longer term view. I am building for the longer term with the aim of making the blog a source of record on New England. This takes time. In the meantime, I will continue to enjoy the voyage of discovery.

A simple financial reform

If an investment instrument has never been through a down-cycle, rating agencies should be forbidden from giving the instrument a grade of BBB (or in Moody's case, Baa) or higher. Instruments that lack history are, by definition, speculative.

Schools and Property Values

One of my good GW friends, knowing that my daughters had just finished navigating the college admissions process, lent me her copy of Acceptance, a novel about crazed parents and their slightly less crazed children going through the college application process in a fictitious Maryland county that just happens to contain the National Institutes for Health. The novel is quite funny, and one passage stood out:

Her public school might as well have been a private school, and in a way, it was. There was no tuition, per se, but irrational real estate prices served to filter out most of the rabble and ;end it a somewhat exclusive air, or so she'd heard her mother say.

This paragraph summarizes why I support school choice. Affluent people have school choice--they can pay for private school, or they can move to places with excellent public schools (whose excellence is capitalized into land prices). Meanwhile, kids of poor families are stuck in dysfunctional school districts with no place to go. Just spending money on these schools doesn't seem to solve the problem--DC has among the highest expenditures per pupil of any school district in the country, yet by any reasonable measure, their performance, particularly at the high school level, is dreadful. Kids in DC should be allowed to attend schools in Montgomery and Fairfax Counties.

New England Australia - what brings people to this site

I have been reviewing visitor patterns to see what brings people to this site.

Of the last ten hits, one was a direct hit, one a referral from the New England History blog, eight came in through search engines.

The first search on Google Australia but whole web was on nsw election 2015. The story I did on the New England results came up on the first page and drew the visitor. The search also picked up two broader posts I did on Personal Reflections , so three of the top ten items picked up by Google were in fact written by me.

I write from a personal perspective, but I also try to give both links and data, so I hope that the visitor found the material of some use.

The next search, again on Google Australia and whole web, was on "G A Robinson" Lismore. I have mentioned Mr Robinson a number of times in the context of the foundation of New England Airways (list of posts here), so these posts came up in the first ten hits.

I had not done this exact search myself before, so picked up a few more references myself. One was a short factual note on oldbeacon, a second a passing reference in John Gunn's book on Amazon.

The third search on Google was buzo, alex. This picked up, again in the first ten references, the story I wrote about his death. I have noticed over time a steady interest in Alex. The story on him on Wikipedia is very short. I hope that someone with more literary knowledge than I have will extend it at some point.

There were two searches, different IPs, on Google Australia but whole web on Slim Dusty. Both picked up the story on the Slim Dusty Centre project in Kempsey.

Interestingly, the first search on slim dusty history brought the story in among the first ten. In the second on just slim dusty the story came in at number 43, so my visitor had to go through a few pages to find it.

History birpai tribe on Google Australia whole web brought this blog up in the first ten. I am sure that whoever was searching was disappointed because I have only one passing reference. I can do something about this.

A ninemsn search on the university of new england's centre for local government brought this blog up number one. A totally undeserved result brought about by the way the search engine robots combine words.

Finally, a Google search on towns in new england nsw captured the story I wrote on New England's poor towns at number 3.

This result made me a bit uncomfortable. That story was sparked by Professor Vinson's study of disadvantage and addressed a failure in public policy. I would not want the post to be seen as a total story of all New England towns.

I have written about a fair number of places. I wonder how I can make this more accessible?

A few late additions

I had just finished this post when a few new hits appeared.

Still on the weird and wonderful was the search on Google on number of children per Morman family 2015. I have one reference in one post to the Morman Church, the story on my year five class at the Armidale Demonstration School that somehow bringing the site up in the first ten.

Next came a search on ninemsn on stats youth crime in cessnock nsw australia. I think from the words on the search page that my post on the NSW State Plan was the trigger here, but when I followed the msnsearch link back it bought up a number of posts in a series, some form of consolidation brought about by the msn search robots.

Then there was the search on king family at bingara. Here my story on the death of David Armstrong who was born in Bingara and was known as the king came up as the second item. I hope that my visitor found the story of some interest, although it had nothing to do with the King family as such.

I am always interested in New England families, so followed some of the links myself.

The first click led me to Message Stick on the National Indigenous Times (19 April 07) focused on finding missing relatives. Nothing on the King family, but interesting.

Then a click took me to the Peerage.com, a genealogical survey of the peerage of Britain as well as the royal families of Europe. This is a somewhat eccentric but interesting site maintained by Daryyl Lundy in New Zealand.

Here I learned that D'hrie King, the daughter of Frank R King of Bingara, married Sir William Windsor Broun of Colstoun, 13th Bt. Here I found a list of people with some connection to the peerage grouped by NSW town or suburb. The list is not complete, the Crofts are not on it as a New England example, but it is still an interesting byway.

Another link led me to Joyce and Neville Bryant's home page.

While they now live in Stanthorpe just over the New England border in Queensland, Joyce was born in Glen Innes and then boraded in Armidale to complete her secondary education at the Armidale High School in the early 1950s. The site includes some interesting material on the Hartman family of Glen Innes.

Yet another link led me to Aussie Rhonda's Geneology site. This is a very good site with a strong focus on the western New England Tablelands and slopes. It includes a useful page of resources. Saddly, when I went to leave a message in the guest book I found that this section of the site had been closed because of, you guessed it, the impact of spammers.

Five buildings that should not have been built

These are my monuments to architectural incompetence and/or excess:

Number 5: University of Wisconsin-Madison Humanities Building




Credit: http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/7577/dsc00115ol7.jpg

The ugliest building on the campus where I studied and worked for 19 years. A spectacular example of the 60's brutality school; a building that only a concrete thinker could appreciate. Perhaps the most ironically named building I know. UW is planning on tearing the building down, at which point the FBI building in Washington will take its place as the ugliest building of the type (although they are all ugly).

Number 4: Empire State Plaza, Albany, New York



Better known as "(Nelson) Rockefeller's Last Erection." Enough said.

Number 3: Principal Insurance Building, Des Moines, Iowa



This building is not so bad--it is not distinguished, but not so bad.

It is, however, excessive. Land in Des Moines is more or less free. High-rise construction is expensive, in part because high rise buildings need deep footings, and in part because rentable area is reduced by elevators. The reason for high-rises in New York and Hong Kong is that land is so expensive, the benefits of economizing on land outweigh the costs of the expensive improvements.

Credit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Photo_801grand_north-eastside_des_moines_usa_2007-06-15.jpg#file

Number 2: Petronis Towers, Kuala Lumpur





Credit: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Petronas_Panorama_II.jpg

It was 30 percent empty when it opened. It looks like a very large pair of binoculars. I generally like Pelli's work, but...

Number 1: Burj Dubai





Credit: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/BurjDubaiJI3.jpg

Dubai puts the rest of the world (including perhaps even Vegas) to shame when it comes to excess. Burj Dubai is the tallest building in the world. Construction was halted before completion because of financial consideration. According to the Dubai newspaper The National, rents in Dubai are plummeting. Perhaps it is because one project has dramatically increase the amount of available space for rent.

I referred above to the low cost of land in Des Moines. Dubai is in the desert; when one flies into its (beautiful) airport, one sees empty land in every direction. Dubai is not Hong Kong.

Manilla - Oakhampton Farmstay

Photo: That's a whopper. Oakhampton Farm Stay

Oakhampton is a 4,000 acre farmstay near Manilla. Run by Belinda Nixon and her son James, it has been in the family for six generations and is a working sheep and cattle property.

Belinda and James have been hosting visitors to Oakhampton since 1990. They welcome families, couples, aspiring jack and jillaroos, grey nomads and, quite often, groups of American school students as part of the “People to People” program.

James, an earthy, friendly type who unashamedly adores every animal on the farm, talks about the way the farmstay experience can make a difference to people.

“We had a boy with autism who actually smiled for the first time in his life when he held a baby goat,” says James, grinning broadly.

“Then there’s the American city kids who get more than just a lesson in sheep shearing or horse riding – they get a decent idea of life in the bush, of Australian wildlife and the amount of work required to maintain a farm like ours,” he explains.

A major appeal of Oakhampton is the range of accommodation options. You can stay in the main homestead and have all your meals served to you. Belinda and James are excellent caterers who will dish up healthy, traditional dinners in their formal dining room, and big country breakfasts in the more casual sunroom.

Next option is to stay in the “apartment” also located within the homestead, where you can cook for yourself in the small kitchen. There are three bedrooms, a living room and bathroom so a family can be easily accommodated here.

In the neighbouring paddocks are two cottages, where you are completely self- contained but more private, yet still able to access all the farm activities.

A decent two kilometre walk down the track, or a few minutes drive are the bunkhouses, catering to larger groups.

Meals can all be arranged depending on your specific needs. Those who stay in the cottages usually bring their own supplies while those in the homestead usually enjoy their meals served by the hosts.

The abundance of baby animals and native wildlife living in the paddocks close to the main homestead means most guests get the opportunity for some close interaction with the creatures.

On arrival at the back door, you’ll meet George, the sulphur-crested cockatoo who will sing along with you if you’re lucky. Meanwhile the working dogs will gather round and give you a friendly hello and you may also spot the latest batch of kittens roaming around.

Chances are you’ll find an orphaned joey or two wrapped in a blanket in a basket inside the house because Belinda is a member of the wildlife rescues service, WIRES.

Most of the kangaroos that arrive at her door are those whose mothers have been hit by cars. The joeys can be just as demanding as babies in terms of feed times, so guests often get asked to bottle feed them.

Take a stroll around the yard with James who will introduce you to each of the animals as proudly as if they’re his own children.

There are plenty of goats and kids, also deer, chooks, guinea fowl, rabbits and a blind cow. Then there’s Daisy May, the large white pig, a favourite with children at feeding time, because there’s nothing like watching a pig pigging out.

Ask James anything you like about the animals and he’s always happy to share his knowledge. He also takes trail riding tours around the property and will teach you the basics of horse riding if you’re a novice.

It’s a short and pleasant drive to Split Rock Dam, where you can have a picnic overlooking the water. The view is better when the dam is full of course, but sadly this is a rare occurrence these days. Fishing is an option here as well, but you can also fish at the private dam on the property.

Other activities to keep you active include tennis on the clay court, bike riding on the unsealed roads and bird watching.

Belinda and James are a fount of local knowledge and as long as they don’t have a farm job for you, can always suggest other things to see and do in their neighbourhood.

Manilla has a huge reputation internationally with paragliders, hang-gliders and glider pilots. In 2015, it hosted the World Paragliding Championships. Head for Mt Borah – the launch site where you can watch people take flight, or perhaps get adventurous and try a lesson with the Manilla Sky Sailors Club.

Oakhampton is generally fully booked in school holiday periods, so bookings ahead of time are recommended. It’s testament to the fact that this is a farmstay without a hint of holiday pretension about it.

Location

Manilla is approximately 45kms north of Tamworth the Fossickers Way. Oakhampton Homestead is 20km north of Manilla. Website: http://www.oakhampton.biz/ Phone: 02 67 85 6517.

For general enquiries about Manilla, please phone the Visitor Information Centre on 02 67 851 113.

New England Australia - a few inland pubs and clubs

Photo: Uralla Main Street. Stature of the bushranger Captain Thunderbolt at Front

Pubs and clubs offers travellers so much more than food and drink – they give you that unique opportunity to meet the people face to face, and the opportunity to connect with the local community.

If you’re travelling through Big Sky Country in NSW – that’s somewhere between Armidale, Tenterfield and Moree – then consider stopping at a pub or club along the way, even if it’s just for a quick meal and cold drink.

Tamworth

The country music capital has many good pubs and clubs. For live music, try The Pub or the Scully Room at the Southgate Inn. The totally transformed Good Companions Hotel offers patrons several eating areas.

West Tamworth League Club, better known as Wests, offers two award winning dining experiences along with live music on Friday and Saturday nights. It’s a club with plenty of entertainment and promotions, including cash giveaways, free poker and regular raffles happening every week. Banjos Family Restaurant offers casual bistro style dining with open air dining on the verandahs overlooking Scully Park. The menu is modern Australian cuisine and it’s open for lunch and dinner seven days a week. Neros Café is a casual dining venue with light meals, gourmet salads, coffee and cakes and is open seven days to late. Wests is situated on the south western side of Tamworth.

Just one block back from Peel Street in Tamworth’s CBD is Wests Diggers, a club with pool tables, big screens for sports, and live music in a tropical-style courtyard. There are three dining facilities here – Nero’s Café, like the one at Wests, the family- friendly Pedro’s Mexican Cantina, serving tasty Mexican dishes and Smoky’s Bar and Grill, a dinner venue for lovers of country music lovers and great food.

Get more information on Tamworth’s pubs & clubs at http://www.visittamworth.com.au/ or phone (02) 6767 5300.

Armidale

There’s a diverse range of pubs and clubs in Armidale, from those appealing to the university crowd to the family-friendly venues. You’re certain to find something that appeals to your taste.
The Wicklow Hotel is a classic Armidale pub with a kids club and stylish dining area while the New England Hotel, better known as The Newie, is the gathering place for students in this university town. For clubs, try the Armidale Ex-Services Club or the Armidale Bowling Club. At the Ex-Services Club has the Tuscany Brasserie serving delicious meals seven days a week while the Bowling Club offers and extensive bistro menu.

Get more information on Armidale‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.armidaletourism.com.au/ or phone 1800 627 736.

Glen Innes

Among the many pubs and clubs, there are three venues here with a unique country feel that truly reflect the Glen Innes region. The New England Club is a traditional, heritage style club catering for conferences, parties or that casual afternoon drink, with an elegant restaurant, Braemores on the Park.

The Club Hotel, a staple part of the local community since 1906, is popular with locals for lunch, a quiet drink or a night on the town. The Railway Tavern is a traditional style pub with a beer garden, great pizzas, bar meals and TAB facilities, and a relaxed atmosphere catering to the whole family.

Get more information on Glen Innes‘ pubs & clubs at http://www.gleninnestourism.com/ or phone (02) 6730 2400.

Gunnedah

Some 60kms outside of Gunnedah, The Royal Hotel at Tambar Springs is worth dropping into for a drink or a meal in a friendly country pub. It offers bed and breakfast facilities at very reasonable rates.

Get more information on Gunnedah‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.infogunnedah.com.au/ or phone (02) 6740 2230.

Moree

The Post Office Hotel has three separate dining areas and prides itself on quality pub meals. There’s a beer garden and you can get lunch and dinner six days a week.

Get more information on Moree‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.moreetourism.com.au/ or phone (02) 6757 3350.

Inverell

Recently refurbished, the Inverell RSM Club caters for everyone and has just introduced a BBQ on the deck on weekend nights. Diggers Brasserie, with a kid’s room, appeals to families, and the auditorium is an excellent concert venue.

Get more information on Inverell’s pubs & clubs at http://www.inverellonline.com.au/ or phone (02) 6728 8161.

Guyra

Donna’s Bistro at The Guyra Recreation and Bowling Club serves Australian meals Friday night to Sunday night. There’s regular entertainment and bar facilities are open throughout the week.
Get more information on Guyra’s pubs & clubs from http://www.guyra.nsw.gov.au/ or phone (02) 6779 1577.

Narrabri

One of the North West's most historic ‘watering holes’ is the Cuttabri Wine Shanty. Found on the old Cobb And Co route between Wee Waa and Pilliga, this property was issued with Australia's second wine licence, and is thought to be the only wine shanty still operating in Australia today.

Get more information on Narrabri‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.visitnarrabri.com.au/ or phone (02) 6799 6760.

Tenterfield

The Tenterfield Golf Club is more than just a lovely spot for 18 holes. Along with squash courts, a snooker room and entertainment, its restaurant serves up some delicious meals, using the freshest ingredients.

Get more information on Tenterfield‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.tenterfield.com/ or phone (02) 6736 1082.

Warialda

The Warialda Golf and Bowling Club has a casual bistro offering traditional Aussie fare like roast dinners and steaks. Open for dinner Thursday through to Monday. Children are welcome.

Get more information on Warialda‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.gwydircountry.com/ or phone (02) 6729 0046.

Bingara

The Bingara RSL Club is a popular meeting place for the locals, offering casual dining, regular entertainment and bar facilities.

Get more information on Bingara’s pubs & clubs at http://www.gwydircountry.com/ or phone (02) 6724 0066.

Nundle

The Peel Inn is a historic pub with a spacious beer garden, which is a popular lunch venue with day-trippers to the village of Nundle. It offers accommodation and function facilities as well. Sunday lunch is a specialty here, as is Christmas in July.

Get more information on Nundle‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.nundle.info/

Quirindi

In town, one of the favourites with the locals is The Royal Hotel, a relaxing place for a cold drink. In nearby Wallabadah, the Marshall MacMahon Inn, built in 1867, has BBQ facilities, an open fireplace and a small number of rooms.

Get more information on Quirindi‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.lpsc.nsw.gov.au/ and follow the tourism links or phone (02) 6746 1755.

Walcha

The Commercial Hotel, built in the 1860s, is a classic corner pub offering meals in its refurbished restaurant, as well as country style accommodation.

Get more information on Walcha’s pubs & clubs from http://www.walcha.com/ or phone (02) 6774 2460.

Uralla

With a sensational undercover beer garden, The Top Pub in Uralla offers meals, regular entertainment and accommodation. It’s a very child-friendly pub, providing pencils and colouring in sheets to children on arrival.

Get more information on Uralla‘s pubs & clubs at http://www.uralla.com/ or phone (02) 6778 4496.

What is the Matter with Pasadena?

In today's Pasadena Star News (my hometown newspaper):

PASADENA - Low-density proponents and affordable-housing advocates could clash today as the city kicks off a series of meetings on whether to ease rules restricting second dwellings.

Residents can speak about the rules governing so-called "granny flats," smaller units typically built at the rear of properties. An existing ordinance prohibits such secondary units, unless the lot is 15,000 square feet or larger.

That restriction means most homeowners in Pasadena cannot build a second unit on their properties.

Affordable-housing advocates believe easing or lifting the restriction could increase the city's stock of low-income housing. But neighborhood groups oppose the changes in principal, fearing increased density and traffic, said Henry Sherrod, head of the Pasadena Neighborhood Coalition.

"In general, we think it is not a good idea. It's not the number of bodies the units would add - it is the number of cars...There are just not enough places for people to park already," he said.

Officials last discussed the ordinance in December, when the city was working on its state-mandated housing element, which is part of the General Plan.

Then, affordable-housing advocates argued that allowing additional units would be a boon to the city's low-income residents and to families looking for affordable housing for older relatives.

The city is behind in its state-mandated quota of low-income housing units by just over 1,000
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units.

By comparison, Pasadena has about three times the amount of market-rate housing than it needs, according to state estimates.

Such phenomena as bans on granny flats explain why housing costs more than it should. Fear mongering limits the supply and configuration of housing. While opponents to such housing solutions as granny flats raise issues such as parking, the fact is that many just don't want low income people in their neighborhood, despite the fact that there is no evidence that housing low income people actually reduces property values (The NYU group has done some very good work showing that the opposite can be true).

Mark Thoma gives George Will a deservedly hard time, but..

I agree with Mark that for George Will to accuse someone else of elitism is too rich. For Bill Kristol also to do so is the ultimate in Chutzpah (I would call Will guilty of Chutzpah too, but I would guess George doesn't know what it means).

But Will's basic point about the Fed is not as ridiculous as it might seem. Will says:

The Fed's mission is to preserve the currency as a store of value by preventing inflation. ... The Fed should not try to produce this or that rate of economic growth or unemployment

My problem is with the use of the word "should." The more interesting question is whether the Fed can influence long-term economic growth or unemployment. Kydland and Prescott's model of credible commitment and central bank behavior (Journal of Political Economy 1977), which produced a Nobel prize in 2004, suggests that the Fed can only credibly commit to fighting inflation; that issues of time consistency prevent it from both fighting inflation and maximizing employment, and that if it commits to something other than zero inflation, it will produce socially undesirable levels of both inflation AND unemployment. This has spawned a literature on credible commitment on the part of central banks. And while I am not a macroeconomist (and won't play one on TV--when reporters ask me to forecast interest rates, I tell them to go away), my reading of the literature suggests that it is within the realm of possibility that Kydland and Prescott are correct.

Twelfth Night Commercial 1

TWELFTH NIGHT

ACT I

SCENE II The sea-coast.



[Enter VIOLA, a Captain, and Sailors]

VIOLA
What country, friends, is this?

Captain
This is Illyria, lady.

VIOLA
And what should I do in Illyria?
My brother he is in Elysium.
Perchance he is not drown'd: what think you, sailors?

Captain
It is perchance that you yourself were saved.

VIOLA
O my poor brother! and so perchance may he be.

Captain
True, madam: and, to comfort you with chance,
Assure yourself, after our ship did split,
When you and those poor number saved with you
Hung on our driving boat, I saw your brother,
Most provident in peril, bind himself,
Courage and hope both teaching him the practise,
To a strong mast that lived upon the sea;
Where, like Arion on the dolphin's back,
I saw him hold acquaintance with the waves
So long as I could see.

VIOLA
For saying so, there's gold:
Mine own escape unfoldeth to my hope,
Whereto thy speech serves for authority,
The like of him.

Twelfth Night Commercial 2

Directed by Morgan Green. Starring Hannah Green as Olivia. Shakespeare at his comic best. And it's free. What could be better?

Trying to figure out whether synthetic CDOS add value

In principle, I think they could, because they allow investors to invest in a combination of mortgages that are not actually available in the market (the combination, that is), and as such, make markets a bit more complete.

But does the efficiency benefit synthetics create exceed the cost of their opaqueness? Would creating an exchange deliver sufficient transparency to overcome the opaqueness problem?

Jumbo Conforming Spread

I was looking at the Wells Fargo mortgage web page this morning. The jumbo conforming spread for prime mortgages is around 125 basis points. The spread implies an expected default probability for jumbos, and so I started fooling around with a few simulations.

I used the following assumptions: 12 percent prepayment each year, 30 year term, jumbo rate of 7.35 percent; conforming rate of 6.1 percent, constant conditional default rate (this is the least realistic); loss rate conditional on default of 35 percent. Given these assumptions, the implied conditional default rate is in excess of 3 percent per year, which is extraordinarily high for prime mortgages.

If I raise loss conditional on default to .5, the implied expected default rate becomes 2.5 percent per year. I will do further refining of this, but it seems to me that prime jumbo mortgages are a good investment opportunity.

Greg Mankiw Writes about Education and Income Inequality

But in doing so, he focuses on the top end of the education and income distribution. It seems to me that the problem lies on the bottom end, where according to Heckman and LaFontaine, educational attainment levels are falling.

Americans without high school diplomas simply cannot compete in the global economy.

The Clarence River and the Great Big Water Grab 2 - the issues

Photo: Clarence River near Ulmarra

In my last post I spoke of Mr Turnbull's grab for the waters of the Clarence River to provide water to the people of Brisbane and South East Queensland. In this post I want to spell out the issues as I see them as simply and as clearly as I can.

Any proposal of this type will generate opposition as well as a range of responses, especially from those with environmental concerns. These are important issues that need to be addressed. But I think that there is a broader set of principles involved.

As a statement of general principle, most if not all Government decisions over resources create a pattern of winners and losers.

In the case of the Big River, the immediate losers are the people of the Northern Tablelands and the Northern Rivers who lose access to a resource, the winners are the people of Brisbane and SE Queensland who gain water.

There are direct and indirect or longer term losses associated with the Clarence proposal. Direct losses include the potential affect on the livelihood of those who depend upon the river. Indirect losses include the opportunity costs associated with loss of alternative uses of the water.

There are no benefits that I can see for the people of New England to offset these losses. All benefits flow to the people of Brisbane and SE Queensland. To add salt to the wound, to the degree that the Turnbull proposal involves tax payer money, then the people of New England will in fact be subsidising Brisbane.

This leads me to my first conclusion. If the dam is to proceed, the people using the water should pay the full cost of the water including any direct losses plus opportunity costs, the people of New England should be compensated for those losses and costs.

Two issues then arise. How do we place a value on the losses and opportunity costs? What mechanism might be used to distribute the payment for the losses and opportunity costs?

These are not easy questions to answer to begin with, with the difficulties increased by the absence of any form of New England Government.

To illustrate this last point, consider the difficulties facing the NSW Government in responding to this issue.

The NSW Government does not recognise the New England I am talking about as an entity in any sense what so ever. This makes it hard for it to deal with the issue.

The Iemma Government faces a second problem in that adoption of the approach I am talking about would in fact seriously constrain the future freedom of the NSW Government to do as it wills. Here we have already seen in the case of the proposed Tillegra dam that Sydney itself is quite prepared to play water politics, to override local interests, to gain immediate political advantage.

In all these circumstances, I think that the most that we can expect from the NSW Government is a political response determined by its judgement about the various political forces involved.

This leads me to my second conclusion. If we cannot rely on either the Federal Government or State Government to recognise, let alone respect, the New England interest, then it is up to the people of New England to discuss and present issues in a way that forces consideration of the New England interest. The starting point here needs to be a revived conversation about possible uses of the waters of the Clarence.

I say conversation because I do not think that there is any present agreement even on the issues themselves. I may be wrong, but I have the strong impression that the water grab took people by surprise even though it has been clear for some time that water politics would lead to such moves.

In the meantime, political forces are likely to stall the dam in the short term.

The Federal ALP has attacked the dam, while the Federal National Party itself is vulnerable in some New England electorates. However, the issue will not go away. For that reason, I think it important that the conversation be pursued.

Novels about Academia

I just finished On Beauty by Zadie Smith. It reminded me that my little professional world makes a good backdrop for novels. Others that I have liked include Moo by Jane Smiley, Gaudy Night by Dorothy Sayers, most novels by Robertson Davis, and Talk Talk by TC Boyle.

The economics professor in Moo hits a little to close to home for me sometimes; among Davis' stuff, I especially like the Lyre of Orpheus.

I couldn't say it better myself

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/04/an-open-letter.html

And why did ABC think it was OK to let a Clintonista referee a debate that included HRC?

A more recent article on Rail Transit in the US

Abstract from Clifford Winston and Vikram Maheshrim
On the social desirability of urban rail transit systems, Journal of Urban Economics Volume 62, Issue 2, September 2015, Pages 362-382

Despite a decline in its mode share, investment to build new urban rail transit systems and extend old ones continues. We estimate the contribution of each U.S. urban rail operation to social welfare based on the demand for and cost of its service. We find that with the exception of BART in the San Francisco Bay area, every system actually reduces welfare and is unable to become socially desirable even with optimal pricing or physical restructuring of its network. We conclude rail’s social cost is unlikely to abate because it enjoys powerful political support from planners, civic boosters, and policymakers.

When I have a little time, I will produce a more comprehensive bibliography. My reading of (a fairly extensive) literature is that rail makes sense only in the densest places, such as New York, Boston, Tokyo, Paris, London, Seoul, etc. I would build metros in Indian cities that do not have them. But I have never seen a socially compelling case for light rail.

BTW, I personally love rail. One of the best things about living in Bethesda and working in Foggy Bottom is that I almost never drive to work. Metro is great for me. But should low income taxpayers in Kansas (or Frederick, Maryland, for that matter) be paying for a professor to be able to read in comfort on the way to work in Washington?

My Problems with Light Rail

(1) It is the worst of two public transportation technologies; it has the inflexibility of rail, and the speed of buses. It also has low capacity.

(2) The capital cost alone per passenger mile is very high.

(3) In practice, light rail systems cannibalize bus systems, and so lower overall transit use.

My guru on this was John Kain. A short article of his on the topic is: John F. Kain, The Use of Straw Men in the Economic Evaluation of Rail Transport Projects, The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1992), pp. 487-493. You need a subscription to get to it.

The Clarence River and the great big water grab.

Map: Clarence River Valley

I am of course sorry that SE Queensland is suffering from water shortages. But if they want water, they can bloody well get it from elsewhere.

The point? The Federal Government says that Brisbane should solve its water problems via a dam on the Clarence River. This is a big New England River that rises in the New England Tablelands. It is totally within New England.

Leave aside environmental considerations. If Brisbane is to get water from a New England river then they should pay full price so that money can be used to build New England.

If this happens then there is at least a payback. But at this point there is no suggestion that there will be any payment.

Kamilaroi Highway - Werris Creek Railway Monument and Museum

This is the fettler's sculpture from the Werris Creek Railway Monument and associated Rail Journey's Museum.

Built as a memorial to those who died whilst working to develop our nation's infrastructure, the Australian Railway Monument is a sight to behold. Opened in October 2005, the six evocative structures of the monument are set on the backdrop of the impressive historical Werris Creek Railway Station. Search the name walls of this sobering commemoration and acknowledge those who died on duty.

The associated Rail Journeys Museum is located in the Railway Refreshment Room building of the Werris Creek Railway Station. This unique Museum brings history to life with the new Audio Visual component. Designed to tell the personal social life of railway men and women, the rail journeys museum is operated by ex-railway workers who tell of the laughs, joys and tears of working on the railway.

Contact details:

Railway Avenue, Werris Creek 2343
Telephone: (02) 6768 7929
Email: railjny@nsw.chariot.net.au

Back to Kamilaroi Highway entry page.

Bill Wheaton says housing is a sleeping giant that is about to wake up

He says so in a short paper. I think he is right.

An Anonymous Comment on Meaurement of CPI Owner Rents

Thus just came in:

Both the Rent and OER indexes of the CPI are moved by inflation in market rents. As long as "location-location-location" holds, rent on owned properties will rise at about the rate as rent on nearby rental properties, after controlling for differential effects of aging, which the BLS does. The "how much would your home rent for" question is only used in generating weights

Whoever sent this in: I would like to know more. What do you mean by weights? How exactly is the OER calculated? I want to fix this if I got Turley's comments wrong.

Reverse Snobbery

Having just bashed intellectuals (see below), I now feel the need to bash Maureen's Dowd's column today on what it takes to be a "regular guy (gal)." Apparently John Kerry's disdain for Cheez-Wiz and Barack Obama's concern for the healthfulness of the food he eats disqualify them from relating to working class people, whereas Hillary Clinton's ability to toss down a boilermaker gives her street cred.

Leave aside for a second whether or not the President needs to be "regular." People--including Presidential Candidates--should be able to eat what they want without fear of ridicule and condemnation. It is my observation, moreoever, that lots of different kinds of people like lots of different kinds of food.

The Chinese think they can learn from US Suburbs

There is a nice piece about it in USA Today.

One line in the story, though, really caught my eye.

"Most intellectuals say [suburbanization is] horrible. Most environmentalists say the same thing," says Nora Libertun de Duren, urban planning professor at Columbia University and an expert on suburbs in developing countries. "But developers say it's good business, and architects say it's good business."

And so we see a congenital weakness on the part of intellectuals: the need to look down on how other people choose to live (I am afraid I suffer this weakness myself from time-to-time, although my family does a good job of calling me on it when I display it). The fact is that many people enjoy the privacy, greenary, and sense of order that comes with suburban living, and there is nothing wrong with that. Moreover, as the Chinese have figured out, suburban planned communities often can self-finance infrastructure, and therefore provide a technique for community upgrading.

The environmental issue is more serious, but is solvable. If people were required to pay the social cost of driving, the settlement patterns that would emerge would be environmentally sustainable too. In many places, private automobiles would be very efficient forms of transport if (1) they got reasonable gas mileage and (2) if someone would sit in the front right seat everyday. The idea that light rail will solve environmental problems is just silly.

The Legacy of Pruitt-Igoe

Pruitt-Igoe in St. Louis was perhaps America's most notorious public housing project:




(Picture from http://www.defensiblespace.com/book/illustrations.htm).

The project was completed in 1955, and was so horrible, it was torn down in 1972. here is what the space it occupied looks like now:



It is the green space in the middle. 27 years ago, 2870 apartments were torn down. Nothing has replaced it.

Given St. Louis' economic struggles, such emptiness is perhaps inevitable. Nevertheless, it is also striking.

Paul Krugman has a good point about Big Cities

This is so nice:

OK, actually I was born in Albany, and grew up on Long Island. But here’s my question: I understand why it’s political poison to show disrespect for small-town values — dignity is precious to all of us, and often trumps material interest. But why is it OK to disrespect big city values, even to suggest — as Bush has — that big-city dwellers aren’t part of the “real America”?

I mean, I get a lump in my throat when visiting the Lower East Side Tenement Museum. The big-city immigrant experience is as much a part of what made America as the rural, small-town experience. It deserves the same degree of respect.

I'll go a step further (and BTW, I grew up in a small Midwestern town called La Crosse, Wisconsin--the epitome of the "heartland"). Cities are where things get accomplished, and where people need to learn to get along with others who may be different from themselves. New Yorkers have to cooperate more with others every day than any other place in the US (with the possible exception now of Los Angeles). This reflects values that we should celebrate.

The Trouble with House Prices.

A few months ago, I wrote this:

Now comes a story from the AP saying that people's expectation of PI is negative 1/4 of the time. This all by itself will substantially decrease house prices, and may cause them to overshoot below their fundamental values. Ed Leamer has a proposal to use the tax code to prop up values, but because it is temporary, I am not sure it would be sufficient. More important is the rapid expansion of the FHA program, which explicitly places the US Treasury behind housing markets. We'll see whether it is sufficient...

New England's east-west highways - the Kamilaroi

Map: Kamilaroi Highway

Named after the Kamilaroi peoples, the Kamilaroi Highway leaves the New England Highway just north of Willow Tree. From there it runs north-west through Quirindi to Narrabari and then veers west through Wee Waa, Burren Junction, Walgett and Brewarrina ending at Bourke.

Part of the highway goes through contested, marchland territory from a New England perspective. If you look at the road map, the first part is clearly in New England. However, the far western portion has moved in and out of New England's boundaries.

A key influence here lay in Bourke's role as a river port. Dissatisfied with the loss of traffic and especially wool down the Darling River to South Australia, the colonial Government in Sydney pushed what was called the Main Western Line northwest to Bourke, arriving there in 1885. This drew Bourke and surrounding areas more firmly into Sydney's orbit.

During the Northern (the name New England was not adopted for the new state area until 1931)separation agitation in the 1920s, some suggested boundaries did include Bourke. However, the boundaries recommended by the Nicholas Royal Commission (1935) excluded Bourke and the far west portion. Then the 1967 plebescite boundaries followed Nicholas, to the great distress of many nearby areas who wanted to get out from Sydney and saw themselves as part of New England.

At 607k (around eight hours driving time), the Kamilaroi is not an especially long highway by Australian standards. It is also a very interesting road. In the words of the highway site:

The Kamilaroi Highway route to Bourke from the east coast takes you into the agricultural heartland of NSW, cruising through golden fields of wheat, sunflowers and canola; past the rugged mountain ranges of the Nandewars and Mt Kaputar; and on to the sunburnt plains of the Outback grazing runs.

Along the way, the Kamilaroi’s iconic towns and settlements give you every excuse to extend your journey over several days, with each stop presenting its own unique slice of life in the bush.

I think that this is pretty correct.

For related posts about the towns and regions along the highway see:

• Kamilaroi Highway - Werris Creek Railway Monument and Museum
• Kamilaroi Entry Page. This provides an entry point to posts about the Kamilaroi Aboriginal peoples.
• Werris Creek Railway Timeline
• Teaching in New England - Braefield 1916-1923
• The Outstation now Open
• What has Jane Austin got to do with food in Regional Australia?
• Polocrosse & Narrabri
• Experience a slice of the drover's life - Boggabri
• In Search of the Tastiest Tomato

What people don't know about household income

I spoke at a Hanley-Wood Conference in Ft.Lauderdale today to a group of Apartment operators. It was a very nice audience.

I asked members of the group to raise their hands when they thought I hit the number at which median income for renters in the US was higher. I started at $60K; nobody raised their hand. But at $50K, a number raised their hands; at $40K, nearly everyone had a raised hand. According to the American Housing Survey from 2007, median income among renters was $28,921. It is possible that number is even lower now. If 30 percent of income paid for rent is "affordable," this means the median renter can afford to pay no more than about $750 per month.

Thoughts from 37,000 Feet

I am on a Virgin America flight that includes, among other things, Wifi. The plane is nicely lit and very clean (because it is new). And it makes me wonder whether the airline business will ever be a sustainable long-term business. There are reasons why it is difficult for the legacies to match the Virgins and Jetblues for amenities.

Hollywood Mystery Solved

Two things (ok more than two things, but two things for now) about LA puzzle me. The first thing is that men who constantly have stubble on their chin are considered attractive here. The second thing is they constantly have that stubble.

I think I figured out how they do it. Last Christmas, my daughters gave me a Norelco electric shaver. It is very nice, but I had been neglecting its upkeep recently, and so the blades got kind of clogged up with clippings. If one shaves with a clogged Norelco shaver, one gets perfect Hollywood stubble!

BTW, after seeing the results, I cleaned out the razor and shaved again. A couple of years ago, while on vacation, I went a few days without shaving. My daughters told me I looked awful.